Uncertainty concepts for integrated modeling – Review and application for identifying uncertainties and uncertainty propagation pathways

We review concepts that have been used to address uncertainty in integrated modelling. Although conceptual approaches to tackle uncertainty seem diverse, a synthesis reveals more similarities than differences in the concepts published, especially if one adopts a model application-oriented focus. Given our findings, we slightly adapt the uncertainty framework table (UFT) developed by Walker et al. (2003) and apply it for an existing integrated modelling framework for the bio-economy. The use of colour coded UFTs with a graphical visualisation of uncertainty propagation pathways has facilitated a better overview and communication of uncertainties and uncertainty propagation pathways among the authors. Systematic consideration of uncertainties in integrated modelling may allow for more trust in model results and, if simulations are conducted, for a better robustness check of policy interventions.