Die Folgen des EU-Fiskalpakts 2012 bis 2016. Ergebnisse einer Simulation mit dem Oxford-Modell samt einem Alternativszenario

Simulations carried out with the global econometric model of "Oxford Economics" clearly show the following: Stabilising long-term interest rates in all euro countries at a level below the rate of economic growth would strongly and sustainably improve the performance of the respective economies. The opposite would be the case if all countries continue to follow a restrictive course according to the rules of the fiscal compact. Hence, also the fiscal stance would improve much more under the conditions of stable interest rates as compared to continuing with austerity policy.